Luck is not a strategy: why Australia must join the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons

Abstract

This article examines Australia's complex relationship with nuclear deterrence in the context of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (‘TPNW’). Despite Australia’s historical leadership in disarmament, it remains outside the TPNW. The TPNW directly challenges the legitimacy of nuclear deterrence, advocating for a complete ban on nuclear weapons and offering a path toward their abolition. As most Southeast Asian and Pacific Island states have joined the TPNW, Australia is increasingly seen as the ‘gap in the map’. This article calls for Australia to reconsider its stance, on the basis of international law, public opinion and the importance of joining other nations showing leadership on disarmament, and to explore non-nuclear defense strategies that maintain its alliances. With the third Meeting of States Parties approaching in 2025, Australia has a significant opportunity to shift its position and join the global effort to eliminate nuclear risks, but this requires a change in political will and policy direction.